.jpg?w=800&resize=800,500&ssl=1 "Rixi Moncada")
Recent opinion surveys reveal an unforeseen shift in the race for the presidency in Honduras. The candidate from the governing party, Rixi Moncada, has experienced a continuous drop in poll standings, creating new obstacles for the Liberty and Refoundation Party (LIBRE) as it strives to retain control in the elections slated for November 30.
Ongoing drop in voting preferences
Statistics provided by research companies like Paradigma, Pro-Encuestas, and national news organizations such as HCH indicate a significant drop in backing for the candidate of the ruling party. The Paradigma survey, carried out from May 4 to 17, shows Moncada securing just 11.3% of the votes, falling behind Salvador Nasralla from the Liberal Party (25.6%) and Nasry Asfura from the National Party (21.2%). In that same survey, 13.9% of respondents mentioned they were undecided.
Meanwhile, the Pro-Encuestas study from June 5 to 7 shows a slight uptick for Moncada, with 28.5%, although again behind Asfura (36.3%) and Nasralla (34.2%). Meanwhile, HCH reported on June 12 that Moncada’s voting intention was around 16%, while Asfura registered 45%, with Nasralla in the range between 25% and 35%.
This drop differs from the March data, when the TResearch survey showed Moncada with roughly 44.9% voter support. The variation signifies a notable fall in under three months, amidst a political atmosphere characterized by intense rivalry and increasing voter fragmentation.
Reconfiguration of the political map
The shift in voting tendencies indicates not just a decline in the ruling party candidate’s support, but also a rise in strength among the opposition figures. Nasralla and Asfura consistently rank higher than Moncada in all the latest surveys, suggesting a reshaping of the political scene before November.
In this scenario, the number of undecided voters remains a key factor. Although some recent polls do not report this segment, May data show that almost one in seven voters has not yet decided where they stand. This volatility in public opinion leaves room for changes in the current trend, depending on the effectiveness of the campaigns in the final stretch.
Reactions and strategies of the ruling party
In light of these findings, the LIBRE party has started to re-evaluate its stance. Representatives of the party blame the drop in the survey results on what they see as “misinformation efforts” driven by opposing factions. Nevertheless, the leadership acknowledges the necessity to promptly implement strategic changes, including modifications in political messaging, the campaign staff, and their communication approach with voters.
Half a year before the elections, the primary obstacle for the governing party is not just to recover lost ground against competitors, but also to construct a stronger support system amidst increasing competition. Opportunities for movement are decreasing as the election timetable progresses, and the upcoming weeks will be crucial in deciding if Moncada’s campaign can reestablish itself or if the ongoing trend will solidify.
A visible situation with underlying conflicts
The Honduran electoral landscape is heading toward a closer contest than expected at the beginning of the year. The loss of support for the ruling party’s candidate, the rise of opposition forces, and the weight of undecided voters raise questions about the political system’s ability to channel the growing electoral momentum.
The evolution of the campaigns, the institutional response to possible tensions, and citizen participation will be determining factors in a process that is shaping up to be a key test for the country’s democratic stability.