Over four months ahead of the elections set for November 30, the ruling party in Honduras is experiencing an increase in public disapproval. The Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) party, governing since 2022, is being criticized by political opponents, businesses, and civil society groups. These entities accuse the party of attempting to manipulate the electoral process to maintain power despite a significant decline in polling figures.
Decline in voting intentions and loss of confidence
Recent surveys, like those performed by Pro Encuestas and TResearch, show a continuous drop in support for Rixi Moncada’s bid for the presidency. Initially the frontrunner, Moncada has now been surpassed by nationalist Tito Asfura and liberal Salvador Nasralla in the surveys, placing her in third position.
Analysts point to a mix of factors for this downturn: accusations of corruption in public administration, internal discord within the ruling party, weak economic results, and an increasing public view of government management lacking transparency. The dwindling popular backing has aligned with a tougher political discourse from the executive branch and indications of institutional strain that have triggered warnings in different sectors.
Doubts regarding the election procedures and authority oversight
One of the main sources of controversy is the ruling party’s refusal to allow manual verification of votes, a common practice in previous elections that serves as a cross-checking mechanism for the digitization of results. The opposition and independent organizations warn that eliminating this review could facilitate irregularities and hinder citizen and international audits.
Additionally, there have been accounts of efforts meant to obstruct the implementation of the Preliminary Election Results Transmission System (TREP), which is crucial for ensuring transparency in the vote counting process. Tensions have escalated within the National Electoral Council (CNE), with council members like Cosette López and Ana Paola Hall reporting pressure and endeavors to impede their activities.
Business organizations and opposition representatives interpret these measures as part of a strategy to consolidate institutional control of the electoral process, limit external oversight, and guarantee the ruling party room for maneuver in the event of a defeat at the polls.
Accusations of ideological alignments and a climate of confrontation
The holding in Tegucigalpa of a session of the São Paulo Forum, with the participation of delegations from left-wing governments in the region, reignited the debate on the international alliances of the LIBRE party. Critical voices pointed out that these links with the Venezuela-Cuba-Nicaragua axis could be aimed at replicating models of governance that prioritize the concentration of power and restrict spaces for democratic participation.
At the same time, opponents such as the former president of the Honduran Council of Private Enterprise (COHEP), Eduardo Facussé, have warned of the possible implementation of a “Venezuela Plan” aimed at generating institutional instability, induced protests, and administrative blockades that would hinder a transition of government.
According to these allegations, groups affiliated with the ruling party have carried out disruptive actions in key spaces such as the National Congress and the CNE, in a dynamic that could contribute to eroding the credibility of the electoral process and intensifying political polarization in the country.
An unpredictable situation before a critical election
As the political scene in Honduras becomes more divided and the governing party sees a decline in public support, the nation moves toward elections characterized by a lack of trust, institutional strains, and doubts about democratic procedures.
Various civil society organizations, business sectors, and political leaders have reiterated the need for robust international observation and mechanisms to safeguard the transparency and legitimacy of the electoral process.
The present circumstances reveal not only the weakness of the democratic agreement in the country, but also the challenge of guiding political rivalry within stable institutional boundaries, in a scenario of increasing public disengagement and skepticism towards government entities.