Cinco meses antes de las elecciones generales el 30 de noviembre, el partido gobernante Libertad y Refundación (LIBRE) se encuentra en una coyuntura crítica, caracterizada por divisiones internas, acusaciones de corrupción y un notable descenso en las intenciones de voto. En un escenario electoral cada vez más incierto, el desgaste acumulado del partido en el poder pone en peligro la continuidad de su mandato.
Breakdown in unity and internal conflicts
The choice of Rixi Moncada to represent the ruling party highlighted internal conflicts that had been growing within LIBRE. The later departure of Congressman Jorge Cálix, who had been with the organization for many years, showed significant differences regarding the party’s political path and leadership approach. Cálix, together with other leaders who departed from the party, criticized authoritarian methods and an excluding culture.
In reaction, the leaders of the party organized rallies to show backing for both President Xiomara Castro and Moncada. Nonetheless, these measures did not succeed in changing the image of a diminished group and have been viewed by different groups as efforts to maintain political dominance in challenging circumstances.
Embezzlement controversies and transparency inquiries
The situation deteriorated further after the disclosure of supposed irregularities within the Secretariat of Social Development (SEDESOL), where deputies linked to the governing party faced accusations of misappropriating funds intended for social programs. The most notable instance involved Congresswoman Isis Cuéllar, whose suspension was declared alongside the termination of social funds and an extraordinary step: the party collectively renouncing legislative immunity.
Despite the apparent forcefulness of these decisions, opposition sectors, especially the National Party, described them as symbolic maneuvers intended to divert attention. According to their spokespersons, the ruling party’s actions have not involved real sanctions or effective investigations to ensure accountability.
Unrest in the private sector and appeals to stop the decline in institutions
Criticism has not been limited to the political sphere. Leading voices in the business sector have expressed concern about the country’s direction. In a recent public statement, Eduardo Facussé, former president of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Cortés (CCIC), directly blamed the government for betraying the popular mandate with practices that, according to him, include nepotism, discretionary use of public funds, and lack of transparency in emblematic cases such as SEDESOL, the Koriun scam, and allegations of links to criminal networks.
Facussé cautioned about the deterioration of institutions and urged the public to protect the rule of law against what he viewed as an effort to establish an authoritarian and financially unviable system.
Decline in survey results and reshaping of the voting landscape
The latest surveys show a swift drop in LIBRE’s voter support. Based on information gathered from May to June, backing for the current party has varied from 11% to 28.5%, significantly lower than the 42% seen in March. This decrease, along with inconsistencies across surveys, indicates a divided electoral base looking for other options.
At the same time, opposition candidates such as Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura have gained ground, reaching levels of support ranging from 25% to 36%. Citizen ratings are also indicative of the government’s erosion: President Xiomara Castro receives an average rating of just 4.1 out of 10, in a context marked by unresolved scandals and a growing perception of inefficiency.
A doubtful future for the governing party
The current situation presents LIBRE with a major challenge. The combination of internal crises, institutional deterioration, loss of credibility, and citizen rejection has weakened its position ahead of the general elections. If this trajectory continues, the ruling party risks not only losing control of the executive branch but also seeing the political project that brought it to power in 2021 compromised.
In this scenario, the outcome will depend on the party’s ability to rebuild its internal structure, address social demands, and offer clear responses to allegations of corruption. Otherwise, the November 30 election could mark a turning point in Honduran politics.